NRL Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14.06 | 12.73 | 1.30 |
| Roosters | 10.82 | 12.25 | -1.40 |
| Raiders | 6.16 | 7.06 | -0.90 |
| Panthers | 6.04 | -0.13 | 6.20 |
| Eels | 5.46 | 2.80 | 2.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.00 | 2.85 | 1.20 |
| Sharks | 0.59 | 1.81 | -1.20 |
| Knights | -0.11 | -5.92 | 5.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.54 | -0.18 | -2.40 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.67 | 1.05 | -3.70 |
| Dragons | -3.37 | -6.14 | 2.80 |
| Warriors | -4.59 | -5.17 | 0.60 |
| Bulldogs | -6.32 | -2.52 | -3.80 |
| Cowboys | -6.77 | -3.95 | -2.80 |
| Broncos | -11.05 | -5.53 | -5.50 |
| Titans | -11.72 | -12.99 | 1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Storm | Aug 20 | 14 – 0 | -8.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Aug 21 | 38 – 12 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Aug 21 | 24 – 28 | -6.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Raiders | Aug 22 | 16 – 36 | -15.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Aug 22 | 16 – 38 | -10.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 22 | 56 – 16 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Warriors | Aug 23 | 14 – 20 | 3.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Cowboys | Aug 23 | 12 – 0 | 8.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 27 | Eels | 3.50 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 28 | Dragons | 10.40 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Broncos | Aug 28 | Roosters | 23.90 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Warriors | Aug 29 | Knights | 9.00 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Aug 29 | Sharks | 9.40 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 29 | Panthers | 10.60 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 30 | Storm | 16.70 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 30 | Raiders | 14.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Same bets as you buy I worry for titans and tigers making upsets
4 years ago