NRL Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 15.10 | 12.73 | 2.40 |
| Roosters | 10.18 | 12.25 | -2.10 |
| Raiders | 5.83 | 7.06 | -1.20 |
| Panthers | 5.07 | -0.13 | 5.20 |
| Eels | 4.43 | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.59 | 2.85 | -0.30 |
| Sharks | 1.56 | 1.81 | -0.20 |
| Knights | -0.38 | -5.92 | 5.50 |
| Sea Eagles | -1.25 | 1.05 | -2.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -1.90 | -0.18 | -1.70 |
| Dragons | -3.20 | -6.14 | 2.90 |
| Warriors | -5.15 | -5.17 | 0.00 |
| Bulldogs | -5.76 | -2.52 | -3.20 |
| Cowboys | -6.49 | -3.95 | -2.50 |
| Broncos | -11.22 | -5.53 | -5.70 |
| Titans | -11.40 | -12.99 | 1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Storm | Aug 13 | 6 – 24 | -1.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Warriors | Aug 14 | 18 – 12 | 15.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Dragons | Aug 14 | 12 – 14 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Titans | Aug 15 | 30 – 18 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 15 | 30 – 31 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Aug 15 | 36 – 8 | 17.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs | Aug 16 | 29 – 28 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 16 | 26 – 24 | 3.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Storm | Aug 20 | Storm | -8.70 |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Aug 21 | Panthers | 5.50 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Aug 21 | Dragons | -6.00 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Raiders | Aug 22 | Raiders | -15.20 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Roosters | Aug 22 | Roosters | -10.10 |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 22 | Rabbitohs | 5.80 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Warriors | Aug 23 | Bulldogs | 3.90 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Cowboys | Aug 23 | Knights | 8.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I’m surprised your model has stayed consistent with the number of injuries in the nrl. Due to the six again rule.
4 years ago
Yes, it has been interesting. I usually only get a bit over 60% of results correct for the NRL and I thought I would have a lot of trouble getting good results with these unusual conditions. The six again rule seems to have resulted in larger winning margins, but I haven’t really investigated that properly. As always though, never underestimate inherent randomness.
4 years ago
it does appear the market is pricing well away from the models for the Storm / Eels game
4 years ago
I don’t bet or follow odds but the NRL site appears to have the Eels as favourites to win. The bookies or punters must know something the algorithm doesn’t. Recent form suggests the Storm to win: they beat the Roosters soundly away from home last round while the Eels lost at home to the Dragons who are currently 11th. The Storm are above the Eels on the ladder, although barely. I don’t see the Eels as being favourites based on form.
4 years ago
I think the bookies are factoring in the current injuries and the latest to the winger,lock and possibly the halfback.50/50.
Also its a home game for the Eels.
4 years ago