August 4, 2020

Super Rugby Aotearoa Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.42 15.15 0.30
Hurricanes 7.98 8.31 -0.30
Blues 7.61 5.39 2.20
Chiefs 4.67 7.94 -3.30
Highlanders 0.88 -0.22 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Aug 01 19 – 32 -4.80 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Blues Aug 02 21 – 32 -0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Aug 08 Hurricanes 7.80
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Aug 09 Crusaders 19.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Brent Jackson

    Hi,
    The Blues beat the Highlanders so your prediction was TRUE.
    Cheers,
    Brent.

    4 years ago