Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 1
Introduction
This proved a bit easier to set up than I expected. I was able to use the code for setting up Super Rugby Aotearoa.
I gave the Force a rating of -10 as a new team which has been my normal approach over many competitions. And yes, I know that the Reds have already played and won, but my predictions are exactly what they would have been before the game. At least I have got in before the Brumbies versus the Rebels.
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brumbies | 4.67 | 4.67 | 0.00 |
| Reds | -0.31 | -0.31 | 0.00 |
| Rebels | -5.52 | -5.52 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | -7.12 | -7.12 | 0.00 |
| Force | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Jul 03 | Reds | 11.30 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Jul 04 | Brumbies | 14.70 |