July 28, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 14.03 12.73 1.30
Roosters 12.40 12.25 0.20
Raiders 6.55 7.06 -0.50
Eels 5.47 2.80 2.70
Panthers 3.61 -0.13 3.70
Rabbitohs 2.55 2.85 -0.30
Sharks 1.94 1.81 0.10
Wests Tigers 0.96 -0.18 1.10
Sea Eagles 0.62 1.05 -0.40
Knights -2.26 -5.92 3.70
Dragons -4.00 -6.14 2.10
Bulldogs -5.93 -2.52 -3.40
Cowboys -6.32 -3.95 -2.40
Warriors -7.34 -5.17 -2.20
Broncos -10.48 -5.53 -4.90
Titans -13.79 -12.99 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jul 23 26 – 16 5.90 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Jul 24 12 – 24 -4.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jul 24 8 – 46 -20.80 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Warriors Jul 25 18 – 10 26.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Dragons Jul 25 28 – 24 6.30 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 25 18 – 12 6.00 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 26 12 – 18 7.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Panthers Jul 26 14 – 22 -16.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 Rabbitohs -4.50
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 31 Wests Tigers 12.80
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 31 Sharks -10.40
4 Roosters vs. Titans Aug 01 Roosters 28.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Raiders -10.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 01 Panthers -1.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 02 Eels -9.40
8 Storm vs. Knights Aug 02 Storm 16.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »