NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 13.47 | 12.25 | 1.20 |
| Storm | 12.49 | 12.73 | -0.20 |
| Raiders | 5.97 | 7.06 | -1.10 |
| Eels | 5.63 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Panthers | 2.76 | -0.13 | 2.90 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.72 | 2.85 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | 2.40 | 1.81 | 0.60 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.17 | 1.05 | 0.10 |
| Wests Tigers | 0.06 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| Knights | -2.07 | -5.92 | 3.90 |
| Cowboys | -5.31 | -3.95 | -1.40 |
| Bulldogs | -5.49 | -2.52 | -3.00 |
| Dragons | -5.88 | -6.14 | 0.30 |
| Warriors | -6.73 | -5.17 | -1.60 |
| Broncos | -9.03 | -5.53 | -3.50 |
| Titans | -14.17 | -12.99 | -1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jul 02 | 25 – 27 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Jul 03 | 22 – 16 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Jul 03 | 42 – 4 | 10.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Sharks | Jul 04 | 10 – 40 | -12.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jul 04 | 26 – 16 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | Jul 04 | 12 – 19 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Jul 05 | 12 – 14 | 6.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 05 | 10 – 26 | -7.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | Jul 09 | Roosters | -16.80 |
| 2 | Titans vs. Warriors | Jul 10 | Warriors | -2.90 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 10 | Rabbitohs | 2.70 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Panthers | Jul 11 | Panthers | -0.40 |
| 5 | Broncos vs. Bulldogs | Jul 11 | Bulldogs | -1.50 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Storm | Jul 11 | Storm | -4.50 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Eels | Jul 12 | Eels | -5.70 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 12 | Sea Eagles | -7.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »