Super Rugby Australia Predictions for Round 1
Introduction
This proved a bit easier to set up than I expected. I was able to use the code for setting up Super Rugby Aotearoa.
I gave the Force a rating of -10 as a new team which has been my normal approach over many competitions. And yes, I know that the Reds have already played and won, but my predictions are exactly what they would have been before the game. At least I have got in before the Brumbies versus the Rebels.
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brumbies | 4.67 | 4.67 | 0.00 |
| Reds | -0.31 | -0.31 | 0.00 |
| Rebels | -5.52 | -5.52 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | -7.12 | -7.12 | 0.00 |
| Force | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reds vs. Waratahs | Jul 03 | Reds | 11.30 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Rebels | Jul 04 | Brumbies | 14.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »