June 16, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.85 12.25 1.60
Storm 11.90 12.73 -0.80
Raiders 7.20 7.06 0.10
Eels 4.74 2.80 1.90
Sea Eagles 1.99 1.05 0.90
Rabbitohs 1.92 2.85 -0.90
Panthers 1.01 -0.13 1.10
Sharks 0.76 1.81 -1.00
Wests Tigers -1.22 -0.18 -1.00
Knights -2.64 -5.92 3.30
Bulldogs -4.09 -2.52 -1.60
Cowboys -4.18 -3.95 -0.20
Warriors -5.40 -5.17 -0.20
Broncos -6.57 -5.53 -1.00
Dragons -7.16 -6.14 -1.00
Titans -14.08 -12.99 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Jun 11 20 – 18 11.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 12 37 – 26 -2.60 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jun 12 16 – 10 5.70 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 13 32 – 12 17.60 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Storm Jun 13 12 – 26 -12.20 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 13 6 – 14 -6.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jun 14 6 – 42 -16.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 14 30 – 16 -10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 18 Knights 5.90
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 19 Rabbitohs 11.80
3 Panthers vs. Storm Jun 19 Storm -8.90
4 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 20 Dragons -4.90
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Jun 20 Wests Tigers 5.00
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 20 Roosters -7.10
7 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Jun 21 Raiders 5.20
8 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 21 Sharks 4.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »