NRL Predictions for Round 3
Home Ground Advantage
Determining home ground advantage for this new draw has been very difficult. In some cases it has been straightforward: Storm at home, Cowboys at home, Broncos at home, Warriors always away despite their being the nominal home team. But Knights versus Dragons at Bankwest Stadium? Raiders versus Sea Eagles at Campbelltown? I made the ground neutral for those. I gave home ground advantage to a team if the opponent was from interstate (not counting Raiders playing in Sydney). Also the Eels at Bankwest Stadium have home ground advantage.
To deal with the Warriors always being the away team, I have swapped the order of the teams for some matches because the first team is always the team with home ground advantage in my code.
And yes, I know that a component of home ground advantage is thought to be the home crowd, but there are no crowds, …
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 12.59 | 12.73 | -0.10 |
| Roosters | 10.72 | 12.25 | -1.50 |
| Raiders | 7.15 | 7.06 | 0.10 |
| Eels | 3.84 | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.38 | 2.85 | -0.50 |
| Sharks | 2.16 | 1.81 | 0.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.46 | 1.05 | 0.40 |
| Panthers | 0.56 | -0.13 | 0.70 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.93 | -0.18 | -0.70 |
| Bulldogs | -3.04 | -2.52 | -0.50 |
| Cowboys | -3.89 | -3.95 | 0.10 |
| Knights | -3.98 | -5.92 | 1.90 |
| Broncos | -4.39 | -5.53 | 1.10 |
| Warriors | -6.35 | -5.17 | -1.20 |
| Dragons | -6.40 | -6.14 | -0.30 |
| Titans | -13.88 | -12.99 | -0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Mar 19 | 16 – 24 | 4.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 20 | 28 – 32 | -5.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 20 | 22 – 18 | -5.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Mar 21 | 6 – 20 | -8.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 21 | 8 – 9 | 12.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Storm | Mar 21 | 10 – 12 | -9.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Mar 22 | 24 – 42 | 7.30 | FALSE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Eels | Mar 22 | 6 – 46 | -13.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Eels | May 28 | Eels | -6.20 |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Titans | May 29 | Cowboys | 12.00 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Rabbitohs | May 29 | Roosters | 8.30 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Warriors | May 30 | Dragons | 4.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Wests Tigers | May 30 | Sharks | 3.10 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Raiders | May 30 | Storm | 7.40 |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Knights | May 31 | Panthers | 4.50 |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | May 31 | Sea Eagles | 6.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
going to be a crazy season, i expect we will see some upsets
5 years ago