NRL Predictions for Round 2
Obviously this week is different in a number of ways. Empty stadiums, Warriors with a depleted squad. My predictions take no account of these changed circumstances.
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.03 | 12.73 | 0.30 |
| Roosters | 11.43 | 12.25 | -0.80 |
| Raiders | 6.77 | 7.06 | -0.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.94 | 2.85 | 0.10 |
| Eels | 2.67 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
| Sharks | 1.71 | 1.81 | -0.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.75 | 1.05 | -0.30 |
| Panthers | 0.68 | -0.13 | 0.80 |
| Wests Tigers | 0.20 | -0.18 | 0.40 |
| Bulldogs | -2.39 | -2.52 | 0.10 |
| Cowboys | -4.54 | -3.95 | -0.60 |
| Broncos | -4.94 | -5.53 | 0.60 |
| Knights | -5.11 | -5.92 | 0.80 |
| Warriors | -5.98 | -5.17 | -0.80 |
| Dragons | -6.52 | -6.14 | -0.40 |
| Titans | -12.70 | -12.99 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | Mar 12 | 8 – 2 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Titans | Mar 13 | 24 – 6 | 22.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Mar 13 | 21 – 28 | 3.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Warriors | Mar 14 | 20 – 0 | 3.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Mar 14 | 22 – 18 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Mar 14 | 20 – 14 | -10.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Mar 15 | 4 – 18 | -9.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 15 | 14 – 24 | -4.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Mar 19 | Bulldogs | 4.20 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 20 | Panthers | -5.20 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 20 | Rabbitohs | -5.90 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Mar 21 | Raiders | -8.20 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 21 | Roosters | 12.70 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Storm | Mar 21 | Storm | -9.30 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | Mar 22 | Wests Tigers | 7.30 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Eels | Mar 22 | Eels | -13.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »