March 10, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.82 17.10 -2.30
Chiefs 8.72 5.91 2.80
Hurricanes 7.53 8.79 -1.30
Jaguares 6.81 7.23 -0.40
Blues 4.10 -0.04 4.10
Sharks 3.73 -0.87 4.60
Brumbies 3.38 2.01 1.40
Stormers 1.27 -0.71 2.00
Bulls -0.14 1.28 -1.40
Highlanders -0.22 4.53 -4.70
Reds -1.61 -5.86 4.30
Lions -3.53 0.39 -3.90
Rebels -5.52 -7.84 2.30
Waratahs -5.82 -2.48 -3.30
Sunwolves -22.51 -18.45 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 06 24 – 20 25.20 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 06 14 – 53 -4.10 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 07 15 – 24 10.50 FALSE
4 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 07 37 – 17 1.50 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Mar 07 33 – 19 1.10 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Highlanders Mar 07 38 – 13 3.20 TRUE
7 Sunwolves vs. Brumbies Mar 06 14 – 47 -17.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes Mar 13 Chiefs 5.70
2 Sunwolves vs. Crusaders Mar 14 Crusaders -31.30
3 Blues vs. Lions Mar 14 Blues 13.60
4 Reds vs. Bulls Mar 14 Reds 4.50
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 14 Sharks 7.00
6 Jaguares vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Jaguares 13.00
7 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 13.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »