March 10, 2020

NRL Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.73 12.73 -0.00
Roosters 12.25 12.25 0.00
Raiders 7.06 7.06 0.00
Rabbitohs 2.85 2.85 0.00
Eels 2.80 2.80 -0.00
Sharks 1.81 1.81 0.00
Sea Eagles 1.05 1.05 0.00
Panthers -0.13 -0.13 0.00
Wests Tigers -0.18 -0.18 0.00
Bulldogs -2.52 -2.52 -0.00
Cowboys -3.95 -3.95 0.00
Warriors -5.17 -5.17 -0.00
Broncos -5.53 -5.53 0.00
Knights -5.92 -5.92 0.00
Dragons -6.14 -6.14 -0.00
Titans -12.99 -12.99 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 12 Eels 7.30
2 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 13 Raiders 22.00
3 Cowboys vs. Broncos Mar 13 Cowboys 3.60
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 14 Knights 3.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Mar 14 Rabbitohs 3.00
6 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Roosters -10.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 15 Storm -9.70
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 15 Wests Tigers -4.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Sam Johnson

    Any thoughts on how no crowds/current climate will play into NRL results this week @David Scott ?? Interested to see Round 2 Model Projections.

    5 years ago

  • avatar
    Brent Doyle

    Round 2 tips David?

    5 years ago