Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 9.84 | 7.99 | 1.80 |
| Saracens | 7.60 | 9.34 | -1.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.71 | 0.17 | 4.50 |
| Gloucester | 0.55 | 0.58 | -0.00 |
| Bath | 0.20 | 1.10 | -0.90 |
| Wasps | 0.18 | 0.31 | -0.10 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.87 | 0.25 | -1.10 |
| Bristol | -1.57 | -2.77 | 1.20 |
| Harlequins | -2.21 | -0.81 | -1.40 |
| Leicester Tigers | -3.77 | -1.76 | -2.00 |
| London Irish | -3.82 | -5.51 | 1.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -4.64 | -2.69 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 66 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Feb 22 | 19 – 12 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 22 | 13 – 10 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Feb 22 | 57 – 7 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Gloucester | Feb 22 | 24 – 20 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 22 | 36 – 3 | 10.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Saracens | Feb 22 | 60 – 10 | -8.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | Feb 29 | Bath | 6.30 |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 29 | Gloucester | 0.30 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 29 | Exeter Chiefs | -7.50 |
| 4 | Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors | Feb 29 | Leicester Tigers | 5.40 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Wasps | Feb 29 | London Irish | 0.50 |
| 6 | Northampton Saints vs. Saracens | Feb 29 | Saracens | -4.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »