February 18, 2020

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.01 17.10 -1.10
Chiefs 8.18 5.91 2.30
Hurricanes 7.97 8.79 -0.80
Jaguares 7.41 7.23 0.20
Highlanders 2.96 4.53 -1.60
Stormers 2.37 -0.71 3.10
Sharks 1.36 -0.87 2.20
Brumbies 0.68 2.01 -1.30
Blues 0.35 -0.04 0.40
Bulls 0.05 1.28 -1.20
Lions -1.48 0.39 -1.90
Waratahs -4.43 -2.48 -2.00
Reds -4.65 -5.86 1.20
Rebels -7.63 -7.84 0.20
Sunwolves -18.13 -18.45 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 14 8 – 25 -9.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Feb 14 24 – 10 -0.70 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Chiefs Feb 15 17 – 43 -19.10 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Sharks Feb 15 38 – 22 11.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Feb 15 22 – 23 4.80 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 15 30 – 33 1.50 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Reds Feb 15 43 – 27 18.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Feb 21 Crusaders 17.50
2 Rebels vs. Sharks Feb 22 Sharks -3.00
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Chiefs 13.50
4 Reds vs. Sunwolves Feb 22 Reds 19.50
5 Stormers vs. Jaguares Feb 22 Stormers 1.00
6 Bulls vs. Blues Feb 22 Bulls 5.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Jakes Louw

    Last year you were closer.

    5 years ago

    • avatar

      Yes. I think I started off pretty badly last year too though. Early in the season is hard, and this year particularly so given the number of personnel changes after the world cup.

      Normally I expect something over 70% correct, but we shall see.

      5 years ago