February 18, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.13 9.34 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 8.06 7.99 0.10
Sale Sharks 3.60 0.17 3.40
Northampton Saints 0.91 0.25 0.70
Gloucester 0.84 0.58 0.30
Bath 0.19 1.10 -0.90
Bristol -1.24 -2.77 1.50
Harlequins -2.20 -0.81 -1.40
Wasps -2.34 0.31 -2.70
Leicester Tigers -2.65 -1.76 -0.90
London Irish -4.11 -5.51 1.40
Worcester Warriors -4.97 -2.69 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 15 15 – 26 -1.70 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. London Irish Feb 15 15 – 29 8.70 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 15 18 – 9 3.50 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Feb 15 14 – 20 8.20 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Feb 15 36 – 22 10.50 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Feb 15 21 – 22 -0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 22 Bath 6.90
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 22 Bristol 8.20
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 22 Exeter Chiefs 11.70
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 22 Gloucester -0.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 22 Sale Sharks 10.70
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Feb 22 Saracens -8.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »