January 7, 2020

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.56 9.34 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 8.22 7.99 0.20
Sale Sharks 3.19 0.17 3.00
Northampton Saints 2.57 0.25 2.30
Gloucester 2.34 0.58 1.80
Bath 0.49 1.10 -0.60
Wasps -2.38 0.31 -2.70
Harlequins -2.78 -0.81 -2.00
Bristol -2.97 -2.77 -0.20
Leicester Tigers -3.32 -1.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -4.55 -2.69 -1.90
London Irish -6.14 -5.51 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Jan 04 48 – 10 7.60 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 05 29 – 15 5.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Jan 05 31 – 18 3.00 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 05 62 – 5 16.90 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 06 28 – 45 -8.90 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Jan 06 31 – 35 0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Bath 8.30
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester Jan 25 Gloucester -0.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 9.50
4 Harlequins vs. Saracens Jan 25 Saracens -9.80
5 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Jan 25 Northampton Saints 13.20
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Jan 25 Worcester Warriors 2.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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