Pro14 Predictions for Round 9
My apologies for the late publication of these predictions. I was too distracted by Christmas.
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.59 | 12.20 | 2.40 |
| Munster | 9.14 | 10.73 | -1.60 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 6.84 | 9.66 | -2.80 |
| Ulster | 3.47 | 1.89 | 1.60 |
| Edinburgh | 3.20 | 1.24 | 2.00 |
| Connacht | 2.26 | 2.68 | -0.40 |
| Scarlets | 1.95 | 3.91 | -2.00 |
| Cardiff Blues | 1.35 | 0.54 | 0.80 |
| Cheetahs | 0.90 | -3.38 | 4.30 |
| Ospreys | -1.82 | 2.80 | -4.60 |
| Treviso | -2.73 | -1.33 | -1.40 |
| Dragons | -9.63 | -9.31 | -0.30 |
| Southern Kings | -13.18 | -14.70 | 1.50 |
| Zebre | -16.34 | -16.93 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 55 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Dec 21 | 54 – 42 | 17.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Zebre vs. Treviso | Dec 22 | 8 – 13 | -9.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Connacht vs. Munster | Dec 22 | 14 – 19 | -1.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Dec 22 | 22 – 20 | -7.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh | Dec 22 | 20 – 16 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Cardiff Blues | Dec 22 | 16 – 19 | 2.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Blues vs. Dragons | Dec 27 | Cardiff Blues | 16.00 |
| 2 | Scarlets vs. Ospreys | Dec 27 | Scarlets | 8.80 |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Connacht | Dec 28 | Ulster | 6.20 |
| 4 | Treviso vs. Zebre | Dec 28 | Treviso | 18.60 |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | Dec 29 | Edinburgh | 1.40 |
| 6 | Munster vs. Leinster | Dec 29 | Leinster | -0.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »