December 3, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.03 9.34 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 7.26 7.99 -0.70
Northampton Saints 2.63 0.25 2.40
Sale Sharks 1.04 0.17 0.90
Gloucester 0.76 0.58 0.20
Bath -0.23 1.10 -1.30
Bristol -0.81 -2.77 2.00
Harlequins -1.40 -0.81 -0.60
Worcester Warriors -1.88 -2.69 0.80
Wasps -2.15 0.31 -2.50
London Irish -3.83 -5.51 1.70
Leicester Tigers -4.19 -1.76 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Nov 30 12 – 25 -3.70 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Dec 01 38 – 3 11.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 36 – 13 9.90 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Dec 01 20 – 13 0.80 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. London Irish Dec 02 27 – 27 8.50 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 02 23 – 19 2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 21 Gloucester 7.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 22 Exeter Chiefs -7.00
3 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Dec 22 Sale Sharks 2.90
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Dec 22 Saracens 14.30
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Dec 22 Wasps 3.80
6 London Irish vs. Bath Dec 23 London Irish 0.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »