November 12, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.50 12.20 2.30
Munster 9.42 10.73 -1.30
Glasgow Warriors 7.88 9.66 -1.80
Connacht 3.09 2.68 0.40
Scarlets 3.07 3.91 -0.80
Ulster 2.34 1.89 0.40
Edinburgh 2.07 1.24 0.80
Cheetahs 0.44 -3.38 3.80
Cardiff Blues 0.12 0.54 -0.40
Ospreys -0.84 2.80 -3.60
Treviso -1.63 -1.33 -0.30
Dragons -8.82 -9.31 0.50
Southern Kings -13.67 -14.70 1.00
Zebre -17.98 -16.93 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Nov 09 11 – 42 -4.60 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Nov 09 20 – 7 18.40 TRUE
3 Ospreys vs. Southern Kings Nov 10 14 – 16 20.90 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 7 – 31 -18.40 TRUE
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Cheetahs Nov 10 30 – 17 4.70 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Ulster Nov 10 22 – 16 13.40 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Treviso Nov 10 20 – 17 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Nov 30 Munster 13.80
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 30 Ulster 5.80
3 Treviso vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 01 Treviso 4.70
4 Connacht vs. Southern Kings Dec 01 Connacht 23.30
5 Dragons vs. Zebre Dec 01 Dragons 15.70
6 Ospreys vs. Cheetahs Dec 01 Ospreys 5.20
7 Glasgow Warriors vs. Leinster Dec 01 Leinster -0.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »