November 5, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.62 12.20 1.40
Munster 10.09 10.73 -0.60
Glasgow Warriors 7.38 9.66 -2.30
Connacht 3.98 2.68 1.30
Scarlets 3.49 3.91 -0.40
Edinburgh 2.56 1.24 1.30
Ulster 1.67 1.89 -0.20
Cheetahs 1.19 -3.38 4.60
Ospreys -0.03 2.80 -2.80
Cardiff Blues -0.62 0.54 -1.20
Treviso -2.05 -1.33 -0.70
Dragons -9.30 -9.31 0.00
Southern Kings -14.47 -14.70 0.20
Zebre -17.48 -16.93 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 82.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Southern Kings Nov 02 50 – 0 26.70 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Nov 02 50 – 15 28.20 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 02 22 – 7 26.60 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Cheetahs Nov 03 17 – 13 9.90 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Connacht Nov 03 10 – 20 3.60 FALSE
6 Treviso vs. Edinburgh Nov 03 18 – 16 1.90 TRUE
7 Cardiff Blues vs. Munster Nov 03 23 – 33 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Nov 09 Leinster -4.60
2 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Nov 09 Edinburgh 18.40
3 Ospreys vs. Southern Kings Nov 10 Ospreys 20.90
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 10 Glasgow Warriors -18.40
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Cheetahs Nov 10 Cardiff Blues 4.70
6 Munster vs. Ulster Nov 10 Munster 13.40
7 Scarlets vs. Treviso Nov 10 Scarlets 12.00

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Steyn Enslin

    David your outcomes of week 5 are all scrambled up. Not sure if this will influence your numbers.

    5 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Thanks. Yes, a bit of a mess. Not sure what went wrong with my score updating routines at the moment. Sometimes there are changes to the scores websites I use which throw things off. In fact there were problems the previous week as well. I went back and checked all the scores manually and hopefully they are correct. Manual entry is itself fraught with error and I had to correct a typo in my results just when I was going to update the predictions.

      As a result of this checking I went back to the beginning of the competition because the ratings were a bit strange as well and found an error in my initial ratings for the year. I thought it prudent to then check my optimisation routine and rerun it. If you have been following the Pro14 predictions you might recall I was late and rushed in getting them out. End result is that I have updated all the previous predictions, for weeks 1 to 6.

      I will try and get to the bottom of the problem with my updating routine for next week.

      Thanks again for noticing and advising me.

      5 years ago

  • avatar
    Riaan van der Westhuizen

    Pro 14 Round7 this weekend

    5 years ago