Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 8.51 | 9.34 | -0.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 7.41 | 7.99 | -0.60 |
| Northampton Saints | 1.08 | 0.25 | 0.80 |
| Gloucester | 0.96 | 0.58 | 0.40 |
| Bath | -0.19 | 1.10 | -1.30 |
| Sale Sharks | -0.20 | 0.17 | -0.40 |
| Harlequins | -0.23 | -0.81 | 0.60 |
| Wasps | -0.41 | 0.31 | -0.70 |
| Bristol | -1.48 | -2.77 | 1.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | -2.04 | -1.76 | -0.30 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.40 | -2.69 | 0.30 |
| London Irish | -4.79 | -5.51 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Bath | Oct 19 | 43 – 16 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Oct 20 | 22 – 19 | 13.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester | Oct 20 | 16 – 18 | 4.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 20 | 25 – 27 | 13.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 20 | 24 – 16 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. London Irish | Oct 21 | 26 – 29 | 10.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 26 | Exeter Chiefs | -3.10 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | Oct 27 | Northampton Saints | 8.00 |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Wasps | Oct 27 | Gloucester | 5.90 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Oct 27 | Harlequins | 5.80 |
| 5 | London Irish vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 27 | Sale Sharks | -0.10 |
| 6 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Oct 28 | Saracens | -6.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »