Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 9.34 | 9.34 | 0.00 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 7.99 | 7.99 | -0.00 |
| Bath | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| Gloucester | 0.58 | 0.58 | -0.00 |
| Wasps | 0.31 | 0.31 | -0.00 |
| Northampton Saints | 0.25 | 0.25 | -0.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 0.17 | 0.17 | -0.00 |
| Harlequins | -0.81 | -0.81 | -0.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | -1.76 | -1.76 | -0.00 |
| Worcester Warriors | -2.69 | -2.69 | -0.00 |
| Bristol | -2.77 | -2.77 | 0.00 |
| London Irish | -5.51 | -5.51 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Bath | Oct 19 | Bristol | 0.60 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Oct 20 | Exeter Chiefs | 13.30 |
| 3 | Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester | Oct 20 | Sale Sharks | 4.10 |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Northampton Saints | Oct 20 | Saracens | 13.60 |
| 5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 20 | Worcester Warriors | 3.60 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. London Irish | Oct 21 | Wasps | 10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Loving all the newly added rugby tourno predictions. Thanx a lot👊🌟
5 years ago
Just your love your analysis on rugby sports. I expect more of it sir.Thanks for the analysis and the prediction.
5 years ago