Pro14 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 13.81 | 12.20 | 1.60 |
| Munster | 9.39 | 10.73 | -1.30 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 7.38 | 9.66 | -2.30 |
| Scarlets | 5.13 | 3.91 | 1.20 |
| Connacht | 4.22 | 2.68 | 1.50 |
| Ulster | 2.13 | 1.89 | 0.20 |
| Edinburgh | 1.46 | 1.24 | 0.20 |
| Ospreys | 0.59 | 2.80 | -2.20 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.05 | 0.54 | -0.50 |
| Cheetahs | -0.14 | -3.38 | 3.20 |
| Treviso | -1.52 | -1.33 | -0.20 |
| Dragons | -9.51 | -9.31 | -0.20 |
| Southern Kings | -14.21 | -14.70 | 0.50 |
| Zebre | -18.79 | -16.93 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Munster | Oct 12 | 40 – 16 | -4.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Connacht | Oct 12 | 14 – 38 | -5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Edinburgh | Oct 12 | 40 – 14 | 17.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Scarlets vs. Zebre | Oct 13 | 54 – 10 | 29.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Southern Kings vs. Ulster | Oct 13 | 17 – 42 | -8.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Cardiff Blues | Oct 13 | 17 – 13 | 14.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Ospreys vs. Treviso | Oct 13 | 24 – 20 | 9.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munster vs. Ospreys | Oct 26 | Munster | 15.30 |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Cardiff Blues | Oct 26 | Ulster | 8.60 |
| 3 | Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors | Oct 27 | Glasgow Warriors | -10.40 |
| 4 | Treviso vs. Southern Kings | Oct 27 | Treviso | 19.20 |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Cheetahs | Oct 27 | Connacht | 10.90 |
| 6 | Zebre vs. Leinster | Oct 27 | Leinster | -26.10 |
| 7 | Edinburgh vs. Scarlets | Oct 27 | Edinburgh | 2.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »