Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals
Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 20.45 | 9.00 | 11.50 |
| Canterbury | 12.64 | 12.92 | -0.30 |
| Auckland | 9.87 | 11.57 | -1.70 |
| Wellington | 9.65 | 10.92 | -1.30 |
| Bay of Plenty | 6.75 | -4.82 | 11.60 |
| North Harbour | 4.25 | 5.30 | -1.10 |
| Waikato | 3.00 | 8.24 | -5.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -1.30 | -5.69 | 4.40 |
| Otago | -5.98 | -1.49 | -4.50 |
| Taranaki | -6.53 | -5.22 | -1.30 |
| Counties Manukau | -10.37 | -1.99 | -8.40 |
| Northland | -10.49 | -6.23 | -4.30 |
| Manawatu | -11.83 | -11.67 | -0.20 |
| Southland | -21.35 | -22.08 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 10 | 12 – 22 | -27.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Oct 11 | 11 – 35 | -9.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman | Oct 12 | 28 – 47 | -17.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 12 | 33 – 17 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Oct 12 | 39 – 21 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Northland vs. Otago | Oct 13 | 40 – 10 | -7.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. North Harbour | Oct 13 | 31 – 25 | 13.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals
Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Oct 18 | Bay of Plenty | 22.60 |
| 2 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Oct 19 | Tasman | 14.60 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago | Oct 19 | Hawke’s Bay | 8.70 |
| 4 | Wellington vs. Canterbury | Oct 18 | Wellington | 1.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »