October 8, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 5

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Team Ratings 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.22 27.60 -0.40
England 20.46 19.78 0.70
South Africa 19.76 18.51 1.30
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 10.50 12.12 -1.60
Australia 8.33 8.70 -0.40
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
France 4.89 7.11 -2.20
Argentina 2.33 4.15 -1.80
Fiji -6.16 -5.27 -0.90
Japan -6.44 -7.67 1.20
Italy -9.53 -8.57 -1.00
Samoa -13.95 -11.89 -2.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -16.84 -20.46 3.60
Georgia -18.82 -17.43 -1.40
Uruguay -32.96 -35.67 2.70
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -34.42 -36.78 2.40
Namibia -39.99 -41.80 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 92.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE
21 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 10 – 45 -7.80 TRUE
22 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 35 – 0 47.10 TRUE
23 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 49 – 3 25.60 TRUE
24 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 45 – 10 42.70 TRUE
25 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 39 – 10 15.80 TRUE
26 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 38 – 19 12.90 TRUE
27 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 71 – 9 68.40 TRUE
28 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 23 – 21 26.10 TRUE

 

Predictions 5

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 53.90
2 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 19.00
3 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 40.00
4 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 18.80
5 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 27.20
6 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 36.80
7 England vs. France Oct 12 England 15.60
8 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 24.40
9 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -5.80
10 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 0.20
11 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.60
12 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -5.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »