Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 20.31 | 9.00 | 11.30 |
| Canterbury | 13.35 | 12.92 | 0.40 |
| Wellington | 8.84 | 10.92 | -2.10 |
| Auckland | 8.60 | 11.57 | -3.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | 8.30 | -4.82 | 13.10 |
| Waikato | 3.81 | 8.24 | -4.40 |
| North Harbour | 3.55 | 5.30 | -1.80 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -1.16 | -5.69 | 4.50 |
| Otago | -2.63 | -1.49 | -1.10 |
| Taranaki | -5.26 | -5.22 | -0.00 |
| Counties Manukau | -8.90 | -1.99 | -6.90 |
| Manawatu | -13.30 | -11.67 | -1.60 |
| Northland | -13.84 | -6.23 | -7.60 |
| Southland | -22.90 | -22.08 | -0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 03 | 10 – 22 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Wellington | Oct 04 | 42 – 34 | -3.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Oct 05 | 46 – 10 | 23.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Auckland vs. Southland | Oct 05 | 64 – 7 | 30.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Oct 05 | 25 – 35 | -12.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Northland | Oct 06 | 52 – 6 | 36.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Oct 06 | 38 – 19 | 11.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 10 | Bay of Plenty | -27.20 |
| 2 | Taranaki vs. Auckland | Oct 11 | Auckland | -9.90 |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman | Oct 12 | Tasman | -17.50 |
| 4 | Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 12 | Counties Manukau | -0.40 |
| 5 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Oct 12 | Wellington | 9.00 |
| 6 | Northland vs. Otago | Oct 13 | Otago | -7.20 |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. North Harbour | Oct 13 | Canterbury | 13.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »