Pro14 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 12.02 | 12.20 | -0.20 |
| Munster | 11.04 | 10.73 | 0.30 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 8.45 | 9.66 | -1.20 |
| Scarlets | 3.93 | 3.91 | 0.00 |
| Connacht | 2.66 | 2.68 | -0.00 |
| Ulster | 2.58 | 1.89 | 0.70 |
| Ospreys | 2.11 | 2.80 | -0.70 |
| Edinburgh | 1.70 | 1.24 | 0.50 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.11 | 0.54 | -0.40 |
| Treviso | -1.15 | -1.33 | 0.20 |
| Cheetahs | -2.18 | -3.38 | 1.20 |
| Dragons | -9.62 | -9.31 | -0.30 |
| Southern Kings | -14.27 | -14.70 | 0.40 |
| Zebre | -17.39 | -16.93 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Glasgow Warriors | Sep 28 | 48 – 14 | -6.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Ospreys | Sep 28 | 38 – 14 | 5.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Southern Kings vs. Cardiff Blues | Sep 29 | 27 – 31 | -8.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Munster vs. Dragons | Sep 29 | 39 – 9 | 26.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Treviso vs. Leinster | Sep 29 | 27 – 32 | -7.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Scarlets vs. Connacht | Sep 29 | 18 – 10 | 7.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Edinburgh vs. Zebre | Sep 29 | 50 – 15 | 24.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets | Oct 05 | Glasgow Warriors | 11.00 |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Ospreys | Oct 05 | Leinster | 16.40 |
| 3 | Southern Kings vs. Munster | Oct 06 | Munster | -18.80 |
| 4 | Zebre vs. Dragons | Oct 06 | Dragons | -1.30 |
| 5 | Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh | Oct 06 | Cardiff Blues | 4.90 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Ulster | Oct 06 | Cheetahs | 1.70 |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Treviso | Oct 06 | Connacht | 10.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »