Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 19.45 | 9.00 | 10.50 |
| Canterbury | 13.56 | 12.92 | 0.60 |
| Wellington | 9.86 | 10.92 | -1.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | 7.15 | -4.82 | 12.00 |
| Auckland | 6.24 | 11.57 | -5.30 |
| Waikato | 3.15 | 8.24 | -5.10 |
| North Harbour | 2.53 | 5.30 | -2.80 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -2.07 | -5.69 | 3.60 |
| Otago | -2.85 | -1.49 | -1.40 |
| Taranaki | -4.61 | -5.22 | 0.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -7.99 | -1.99 | -6.00 |
| Manawatu | -12.16 | -11.67 | -0.50 |
| Northland | -12.98 | -6.23 | -6.70 |
| Southland | -20.54 | -22.08 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taranaki vs. Southland | Sep 26 | 19 – 0 | 20.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Sep 27 | 40 – 0 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 28 | 51 – 24 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Wellington vs. Northland | Sep 28 | 57 – 36 | 28.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 28 | 38 – 5 | 23.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Otago vs. Waikato | Sep 29 | 45 – 35 | -4.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. North Harbour | Sep 29 | 16 – 29 | -10.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 03 | Hawke’s Bay | -1.90 |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Wellington | Oct 04 | Wellington | -3.30 |
| 3 | Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu | Oct 05 | Bay of Plenty | 23.30 |
| 4 | Auckland vs. Southland | Oct 05 | Auckland | 30.80 |
| 5 | Otago vs. Canterbury | Oct 05 | Canterbury | -12.40 |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Northland | Oct 06 | Tasman | 36.40 |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Oct 06 | Waikato | 11.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »