September 29, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 3

By

Team Ratings 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.68 27.60 0.10
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.62 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.06 8.70 0.40
France 7.02 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 3.88 5.44 -1.60
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -11.75 -11.89 0.10
USA -16.61 -16.38 -0.20
Georgia -17.32 -17.43 0.10
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -32.69 -35.67 3.00
Canada -34.06 -32.45 -1.60
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.
Here are the predictions for games played so far.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE

 

Predictions 3

Here are the updated predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 Georgia 15.40
2 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 Wales -3.60
3 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 Scotland 15.60
4 France vs. USA Oct 02 France 23.60
5 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 New Zealand 61.70
6 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -8.70
7 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
8 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
9 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 41.80
10 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
11 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 11.30
12 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.20
13 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.00
14 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.00
15 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.10
16 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 39.40
17 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.20
18 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 26.40
19 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.40
20 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
21 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 23.30
22 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.50
23 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
24 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 45.30
25 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -4.40

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Rugby Sceptic

    Looking at your predictions – how are you saying you are successful given that your “TRUE” predictions are actually less than the predicted score.

    It can’t simply be “TRUE” because the team wins….

    5 years ago

  • avatar
    Sonia van der mescht

    FRANCE VS USA
    SCORE PREDICTION

    5 years ago

  • avatar
    Schneider marco

    Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE

    why are this true yout Prediction was argentina -24 but argentina win only with 16points more :/

    5 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      I am afraid I have answered this query a number of times.

      Actually I am surprised how close to the predicted margins many of the results have been.

      5 years ago

  • avatar
    Shaun Robinson

    Greetings Mr Scott.

    Firstly, thank you for taking the time to post all of your predictions. I am fascinated by how close most of the predictions are so far.

    Is there a downloadable excel spreadsheet where we could manipulate the data ourselves?

    Kind Regards

    5 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Thanks for the comments. Sorry, but I don’t wish to give away my data. All calculations are done in R by the way, including production of reports.

      5 years ago

      • avatar
        Shaun Robinson

        Fully understandable. Thanks for taking the time to reply.

        5 years ago

  • avatar
    Pierre Small

    Thank you for sharing your work. You have been spot on a number of times.

    Based on your calculations, what is the probability that your prediction is 100% correct?

    IE France vs. Tonga. You predict a variance of 26 point. What percentage do you tie to that probability? And my follow up question what is the probability that is could be 25 or 27?

    5 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      I have the means of calculating those values but I don’t as a rule and don’t have time to do it now in this case.

      5 years ago

  • avatar
    pieter roux

    Almost everything on point except for the big upsets. Well done

    5 years ago

  • avatar
    Rich Keane

    Hi David,

    Thank you for your predictions, i use them all the time. They helped me win my Superbru pool for the Super Rugby season and now I am using your stats for the Superbru RWC competition. This pool is for cash, wish me luck!

    Rich

    5 years ago

    • avatar
      #1 Fan

      Haha it’s definitely helping me as well on Superbru – thank you David great fun

      5 years ago

  • avatar
    martin smith

    your predictions are the best of all the predictions on the internet. your calculation method is very good. keep it up, because the members that use your predictions are faring very well on superbru. thank you for allowing us to use your predictions and look like we know what we are doing

    5 years ago

  • avatar
    Piet skiet

    World cup semi-final predictions????

    5 years ago