September 3, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 13.36 6.03 7.30
Roosters 11.92 8.72 3.20
Raiders 7.79 1.81 6.00
Rabbitohs 2.57 3.89 -1.30
Sea Eagles 1.59 -5.61 7.20
Wests Tigers 1.22 -5.57 6.80
Sharks 1.18 3.90 -2.70
Eels -0.41 -6.17 5.80
Broncos -0.74 2.63 -3.40
Panthers -3.00 0.93 -3.90
Knights -3.06 -8.51 5.40
Bulldogs -3.63 -0.61 -3.00
Cowboys -4.88 0.15 -5.00
Dragons -6.47 0.06 -6.50
Warriors -6.78 -0.27 -6.50
Titans -12.65 -3.36 -9.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 15 – 8 0.90 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 10 – 31 -2.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 30 17 – 16 2.90 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Titans Aug 31 38 – 4 9.10 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 31 6 – 36 -5.30 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 31 22 – 6 18.20 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 01 14 – 15 -4.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 14 – 42 -0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 05 Roosters -6.40
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Sep 06 Eels 1.00
3 Storm vs. Cowboys Sep 06 Storm 21.20
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Sep 07 Raiders 19.10
5 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sep 07 Bulldogs 0.10
6 Titans vs. Dragons Sep 07 Dragons -3.20
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Sep 08 Wests Tigers 3.00
8 Panthers vs. Knights Sep 08 Panthers 3.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »