August 13, 2019

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 12.59 12.92 -0.30
Tasman 12.14 9.00 3.10
Auckland 10.64 11.57 -0.90
Waikato 8.57 8.24 0.30
Wellington 7.78 10.92 -3.10
North Harbour 6.23 5.30 0.90
Bay of Plenty -1.01 -4.82 3.80
Counties Manukau -3.09 -1.99 -1.10
Taranaki -4.12 -5.22 1.10
Hawke’s Bay -4.25 -5.69 1.40
Otago -5.30 -1.49 -3.80
Northland -6.40 -6.23 -0.20
Manawatu -13.11 -11.67 -1.40
Southland -21.92 -22.08 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Northland Aug 08 17 – 27 -11.90 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 09 28 – 28 10.30 FALSE
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Aug 10 45 – 8 2.10 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 10 29 – 34 7.20 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Aug 10 31 – 28 -0.70 FALSE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Aug 11 50 – 7 0.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 13 – 31 -2.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Auckland Aug 15 Auckland -13.00
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 16 North Harbour 13.30
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Aug 16 Wellington -8.00
4 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 17 Taranaki -5.00
5 Otago vs. Southland Aug 17 Otago 20.60
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Aug 18 Canterbury 4.40
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 18 Waikato -5.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Dan Mudgway

    Love these stats. Keep up the good work!

    5 years ago