NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 13.10 | 6.03 | 7.10 |
| Roosters | 9.70 | 8.72 | 1.00 |
| Raiders | 8.51 | 1.81 | 6.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.48 | 3.89 | -1.40 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.11 | -5.61 | 7.70 |
| Sharks | 0.14 | 3.90 | -3.80 |
| Eels | -0.77 | -6.17 | 5.40 |
| Broncos | -1.26 | 2.63 | -3.90 |
| Panthers | -1.84 | 0.93 | -2.80 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.46 | -5.57 | 3.10 |
| Warriors | -3.59 | -0.27 | -3.30 |
| Cowboys | -3.74 | 0.15 | -3.90 |
| Dragons | -4.15 | 0.06 | -4.20 |
| Knights | -4.32 | -8.51 | 4.20 |
| Bulldogs | -5.62 | -0.61 | -5.00 |
| Titans | -10.27 | -3.36 | -6.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Aug 01 | 28 – 4 | 1.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 02 | 12 – 46 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Aug 02 | 4 – 40 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Aug 03 | 30 – 6 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Aug 03 | 16 – 8 | -2.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 03 | 39 – 24 | -1.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Titans | Aug 04 | 58 – 6 | 18.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Eels | Aug 04 | 4 – 12 | 0.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 08 | Cowboys | 0.50 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 09 | Sea Eagles | -1.20 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Aug 09 | Panthers | 1.00 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 10 | Dragons | 9.10 |
| 5 | Eels vs. Knights | Aug 10 | Eels | 6.60 |
| 6 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 10 | Wests Tigers | -0.20 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Aug 11 | Raiders | 1.80 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Aug 11 | Storm | -7.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »