Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Province | 7.34 | 7.88 | -0.50 |
| Sharks | 4.21 | 5.56 | -1.40 |
| Lions | 3.88 | 3.35 | 0.50 |
| Cheetahs | 3.69 | 2.68 | 1.00 |
| Blue Bulls | -1.08 | 0.30 | -1.40 |
| Pumas | -7.41 | -7.53 | 0.10 |
| Griquas | -9.11 | -10.73 | 1.60 |
| Cheetahs2 | -14.26 | -14.26 | -0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Aug 03 | 22 – 24 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Pumas vs. Sharks | Aug 04 | 27 – 20 | -8.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Blue Bulls vs. Griquas | Aug 04 | 15 – 37 | 14.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Province vs. Pumas | Aug 10 | Western Province | 19.20 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Aug 11 | Sharks | 5.00 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Blue Bulls | Aug 11 | Lions | 9.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »