Posts from July 2019 (13)

July 9, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.25 6.03 5.20
Roosters 6.61 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 0.49 -8.51 9.00
Sharks -0.43 3.90 -4.30
Broncos -1.30 2.63 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Dragons -1.46 0.06 -1.50
Warriors -1.78 -0.27 -1.50
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.12 -5.57 1.40
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 14 – 16 -11.00 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 16 – 24 -7.70 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 20 – 24 8.50 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 22 – 24 4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 12 Panthers 5.10
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 12 Knights 10.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 13 Rabbitohs 8.40
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jul 13 Broncos 5.00
5 Storm vs. Sharks Jul 13 Storm 14.70
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jul 14 Roosters 12.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 14 Wests Tigers 0.30
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 14 Raiders -3.30

 

July 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.19 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.80 9.43 -0.60
Jaguares 7.36 -0.26 7.60
Chiefs 5.91 8.56 -2.60
Highlanders 4.28 4.01 0.30
Brumbies 2.03 0.00 2.00
Bulls 1.28 -3.79 5.10
Lions 0.40 8.28 -7.90
Blues -0.05 -3.42 3.40
Stormers -0.71 -0.39 -0.30
Sharks -0.85 0.45 -1.30
Waratahs -2.48 2.00 -4.50
Reds -5.86 -8.19 2.30
Rebels -7.82 -7.26 -0.60
Sunwolves -18.47 -16.08 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 125 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Jun 29 39 – 7 6.20 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Jun 29 30 – 26 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Jaguares Jul 06 Crusaders 13.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.88 6.03 5.80
Roosters 6.59 8.72 -2.10
Raiders 4.88 1.81 3.10
Rabbitohs 3.97 3.89 0.10
Knights 1.37 -8.51 9.90
Sharks 0.05 3.90 -3.90
Eels -1.38 -6.17 4.80
Sea Eagles -1.40 -5.61 4.20
Broncos -1.78 2.63 -4.40
Dragons -2.09 0.06 -2.10
Warriors -2.66 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.68 0.15 -2.80
Panthers -2.96 0.93 -3.90
Wests Tigers -4.10 -5.57 1.50
Titans -5.06 -3.36 -1.70
Bulldogs -6.62 -0.61 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jun 27 14 – 19 -5.10 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jun 28 22 – 14 2.90 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 28 12 – 14 -2.30 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 29 12 – 30 2.20 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Broncos Jun 29 26 – 12 4.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 29 22 – 16 -4.80 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 30 18 – 19 5.70 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jun 30 14 – 12 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Storm Jul 04 Storm -11.00
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 05 Roosters -7.70
3 Knights vs. Warriors Jul 06 Knights 8.50
4 Sharks vs. Broncos Jul 07 Sharks 4.80

 

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