NRL Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11.09 | 6.03 | 5.10 |
| Roosters | 7.34 | 8.72 | -1.40 |
| Raiders | 6.36 | 1.81 | 4.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.64 | 3.89 | -0.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.92 | -5.61 | 6.50 |
| Broncos | 0.74 | 2.63 | -1.90 |
| Sharks | -1.03 | 3.90 | -4.90 |
| Panthers | -1.13 | 0.93 | -2.10 |
| Eels | -1.39 | -6.17 | 4.80 |
| Warriors | -1.44 | -0.27 | -1.20 |
| Cowboys | -2.13 | 0.15 | -2.30 |
| Knights | -3.14 | -8.51 | 5.40 |
| Dragons | -3.53 | 0.06 | -3.60 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.07 | -5.57 | 1.50 |
| Bulldogs | -6.33 | -0.61 | -5.70 |
| Titans | -7.91 | -3.36 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Jul 25 | 16 – 14 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 26 | 26 – 28 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Jul 26 | 20 – 16 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Eels vs. Warriors | Jul 27 | 24 – 22 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Jul 27 | 12 – 34 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 27 | 10 – 11 | 15.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | Jul 28 | 12 – 20 | -11.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Jul 28 | 18 – 30 | -3.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Aug 01 | Wests Tigers | 1.10 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 02 | Raiders | -3.30 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Storm | Aug 02 | Storm | -7.30 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Aug 03 | Sea Eagles | 7.10 |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Aug 03 | Panthers | -2.20 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 03 | Rabbitohs | -1.70 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Titans | Aug 04 | Roosters | 18.20 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Eels | Aug 04 | Dragons | 0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Update me regularly
Cheers
Snoky
5 years ago
Please keep me posted
5 years ago
Send me updates of every game before game start
5 years ago
To clarify again, I do not do this. I have been getting 4 to 4 thousand hits for my Super Rugby predictions and around a thousand for my NRL predictions and I am not going to maintain an email list and send out large numbers of emails. I try to post on a Tuesday, in the morning NZ time if possible. Not this week though—there was a problem caused by a DNS change and this blog was unavailable for a time.
5 years ago
I wouldn’t have bothered replying if they can’t even garner the energy to click on the webpage!
5 years ago