June 4, 2019
NRL Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.55 | 6.03 | 3.50 |
| Roosters | 7.64 | 8.72 | -1.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.03 | 3.89 | 2.10 |
| Raiders | 2.37 | 1.81 | 0.60 |
| Broncos | 2.20 | 2.63 | -0.40 |
| Sharks | 1.09 | 3.90 | -2.80 |
| Knights | 0.88 | -8.51 | 9.40 |
| Cowboys | -1.36 | 0.15 | -1.50 |
| Warriors | -1.69 | -0.27 | -1.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -2.77 | -5.57 | 2.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.24 | -5.61 | 2.40 |
| Eels | -3.38 | -6.17 | 2.80 |
| Titans | -4.30 | -3.36 | -0.90 |
| Dragons | -4.35 | 0.06 | -4.40 |
| Bulldogs | -4.96 | -0.61 | -4.30 |
| Panthers | -5.72 | 0.93 | -6.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 92 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | May 30 | 15 – 12 | 0.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | May 31 | 26 – 14 | -9.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Raiders | Jun 01 | 10 – 12 | -4.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Jun 02 | 4 – 6 | 0.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Jun 07 | Rabbitohs | 8.10 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Raiders | Jun 07 | Raiders | -2.10 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Storm | Jun 08 | Storm | -6.70 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Eels | Jun 08 | Sharks | 7.50 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 08 | Cowboys | 4.90 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Titans | Jun 09 | Broncos | 9.50 |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Jun 09 | Roosters | -10.40 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | Jun 10 | Bulldogs | 2.40 |