Super Rugby Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.53 | 17.67 | -3.10 |
| Hurricanes | 7.90 | 9.43 | -1.50 |
| Jaguares | 3.56 | -0.26 | 3.80 |
| Highlanders | 3.49 | 4.01 | -0.50 |
| Chiefs | 3.17 | 8.56 | -5.40 |
| Lions | 2.68 | 8.28 | -5.60 |
| Brumbies | 1.58 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Sharks | 1.14 | 0.45 | 0.70 |
| Stormers | 0.23 | -0.39 | 0.60 |
| Waratahs | 0.06 | 2.00 | -1.90 |
| Blues | -0.38 | -3.42 | 3.00 |
| Bulls | -0.63 | -3.79 | 3.20 |
| Rebels | -2.31 | -7.26 | 4.90 |
| Reds | -5.94 | -8.19 | 2.20 |
| Sunwolves | -18.08 | -16.08 | -2.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Bulls | May 31 | 22 – 22 | 4.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | May 31 | 15 – 20 | 2.00 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sunwolves vs. Brumbies | Jun 01 | 19 – 42 | -14.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Jun 01 | 40 – 27 | -14.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Reds vs. Jaguares | Jun 01 | 23 – 34 | -4.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Hurricanes | Jun 01 | 17 – 30 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Lions vs. Stormers | Jun 01 | 41 – 22 | 4.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Bulls | Jun 07 | Highlanders | 8.10 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Blues | Jun 07 | Blues | -1.60 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Jun 08 | Crusaders | 20.80 |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jun 08 | Waratahs | 2.00 |
| 5 | Lions vs. Hurricanes | Jun 08 | Hurricanes | -1.20 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Sunwolves | Jun 08 | Stormers | 22.30 |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Sharks | Jun 08 | Jaguares | 6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »