May 21, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.00 17.67 -0.70
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Highlanders 4.20 4.01 0.20
Jaguares 2.61 -0.26 2.90
Lions 2.23 8.28 -6.10
Chiefs 1.86 8.56 -6.70
Sharks 1.40 0.45 1.00
Brumbies 0.68 0.00 0.70
Stormers 0.41 -0.39 0.80
Waratahs 0.21 2.00 -1.80
Bulls -0.51 -3.79 3.30
Blues -0.90 -3.42 2.50
Rebels -4.16 -7.26 3.10
Reds -5.91 -8.19 2.30
Sunwolves -15.31 -16.08 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Jaguares May 17 20 – 28 10.80 FALSE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 18 23 – 8 -1.20 FALSE
3 Rebels vs. Bulls May 18 17 – 32 2.40 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs May 18 32 – 40 -1.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 18 38 – 29 1.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Crusaders May 18 19 – 19 -14.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 24 Chiefs 11.80
2 Brumbies vs. Bulls May 24 Brumbies 5.20
3 Sunwolves vs. Rebels May 25 Rebels -7.20
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 Crusaders 21.40
5 Waratahs vs. Jaguares May 25 Waratahs 1.60
6 Stormers vs. Highlanders May 25 Stormers 0.20
7 Sharks vs. Lions May 25 Sharks 2.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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