May 14, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.91 8.72 2.20
Storm 9.71 6.03 3.70
Rabbitohs 7.04 3.89 3.20
Raiders 3.89 1.81 2.10
Sharks 1.41 3.90 -2.50
Broncos 0.82 2.63 -1.80
Dragons -0.72 0.06 -0.80
Sea Eagles -2.42 -5.61 3.20
Warriors -2.69 -0.27 -2.40
Cowboys -2.80 0.15 -3.00
Bulldogs -2.95 -0.61 -2.30
Wests Tigers -3.54 -5.57 2.00
Eels -3.85 -6.17 2.30
Panthers -5.20 0.93 -6.10
Titans -5.33 -3.36 -2.00
Knights -6.27 -8.51 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Sharks May 09 18 – 26 -6.50 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers May 10 30 – 4 -2.30 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 10 26 – 10 4.60 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights May 11 32 – 16 1.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons May 11 26 – 18 -5.10 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Eels May 11 64 – 10 7.00 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders May 12 30 – 24 7.20 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 12 32 – 16 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 16 Storm 16.30
2 Panthers vs. Warriors May 17 Panthers 2.00
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 17 Roosters -7.10
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 18 Titans 0.60
5 Cowboys vs. Eels May 18 Cowboys 4.00
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs May 18 Rabbitohs -0.10
7 Dragons vs. Knights May 19 Dragons 8.50
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 19 Sharks 6.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Chad James

    Your results for 4. Bulldogs Vs. Newcastle is incorrect. Score should be 10 – 22 FALSE.

    6 years ago