NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 11.00 | 8.72 | 2.30 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.54 | 3.89 | 2.70 |
| Storm | 6.42 | 6.03 | 0.40 |
| Raiders | 3.81 | 1.81 | 2.00 |
| Sharks | 1.30 | 3.90 | -2.60 |
| Dragons | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Broncos | 0.03 | 2.63 | -2.60 |
| Eels | -0.56 | -6.17 | 5.60 |
| Sea Eagles | -1.62 | -5.61 | 4.00 |
| Cowboys | -2.30 | 0.15 | -2.50 |
| Panthers | -3.21 | 0.93 | -4.10 |
| Warriors | -3.50 | -0.27 | -3.20 |
| Bulldogs | -3.98 | -0.61 | -3.40 |
| Titans | -5.22 | -3.36 | -1.90 |
| Knights | -5.24 | -8.51 | 3.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.53 | -5.57 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | May 02 | 38 – 6 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Titans | May 03 | 28 – 14 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Storm | May 03 | 20 – 18 | -2.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Panthers | May 04 | 30 – 12 | 8.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | May 04 | 18 – 10 | 4.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | May 04 | 42 – 12 | 17.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Knights | May 05 | 18 – 36 | 10.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Eels vs. Dragons | May 05 | 32 – 18 | 0.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Sharks | May 09 | Sharks | -3.50 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Panthers | May 10 | Wests Tigers | 0.70 |
| 3 | Sea Eagles vs. Broncos | May 10 | Sea Eagles | 1.40 |
| 4 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | May 11 | Bulldogs | 4.30 |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Dragons | May 11 | Warriors | 0.90 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Eels | May 11 | Storm | 10.00 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Raiders | May 12 | Roosters | 10.20 |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys | May 12 | Rabbitohs | 11.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
How does HGA work for this round with the NRL?
6 years ago
Thanks. I had not noticed that all games are at Suncorp. I have updated my predictions to reflect this, and provided a note regarding the logic used.
6 years ago