Super Rugby Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Crusaders | 17.15 | 17.67 | -0.50 |
Hurricanes | 7.75 | 9.43 | -1.70 |
Lions | 5.10 | 8.28 | -3.20 |
Chiefs | 4.80 | 8.56 | -3.80 |
Highlanders | 3.09 | 4.01 | -0.90 |
Waratahs | 0.91 | 2.00 | -1.10 |
Sharks | 0.17 | 0.45 | -0.30 |
Stormers | -0.22 | -0.39 | 0.20 |
Bulls | -0.80 | -3.79 | 3.00 |
Brumbies | -1.29 | 0.00 | -1.30 |
Jaguares | -1.50 | -0.26 | -1.20 |
Blues | -1.87 | -3.42 | 1.60 |
Rebels | -3.46 | -7.26 | 3.80 |
Reds | -6.59 | -8.19 | 1.60 |
Sunwolves | -12.25 | -16.08 | 3.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 46 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Mar 29 | 8 – 32 | -3.40 | TRUE |
2 | Waratahs vs. Sunwolves | Mar 29 | 29 – 31 | 19.80 | FALSE |
3 | Blues vs. Stormers | Mar 30 | 24 – 9 | 0.60 | TRUE |
4 | Reds vs. Rebels | Mar 30 | 13 – 32 | 3.00 | FALSE |
5 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Mar 30 | 16 – 19 | 5.50 | FALSE |
6 | Jaguares vs. Chiefs | Mar 30 | 27 – 30 | -2.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Highlanders vs. Hurricanes | Apr 05 | Hurricanes | -1.20 |
2 | Reds vs. Stormers | Apr 05 | Stormers | -2.40 |
3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Apr 05 | Lions | 8.40 |
4 | Crusaders vs. Brumbies | Apr 06 | Crusaders | 22.40 |
5 | Blues vs. Waratahs | Apr 06 | Blues | 1.20 |
6 | Rebels vs. Sunwolves | Apr 06 | Rebels | 12.80 |
7 | Bulls vs. Jaguares | Apr 06 | Bulls | 4.70 |