Posts from April 2019 (22)

April 16, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.34 8.08 2.30
Glasgow Warriors 10.17 8.55 1.60
Leinster 9.76 9.80 -0.00
Scarlets 3.14 6.39 -3.30
Connacht 3.13 0.01 3.10
Ulster 1.71 2.07 -0.40
Ospreys 0.87 -0.86 1.70
Cardiff Blues 0.84 0.24 0.60
Edinburgh 0.19 -0.64 0.80
Treviso -0.69 -5.19 4.50
Cheetahs -2.24 -0.83 -1.40
Dragons -10.04 -8.59 -1.40
Southern Kings -11.81 -7.91 -3.90
Zebre -14.83 -10.57 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 38 – 13 11.20 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 29 – 22 6.70 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 7 – 29 4.90 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 24 – 39 5.60 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 42 – 0 20.90 TRUE
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 7 – 43 -6.10 TRUE
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 28 – 37 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Apr 27 Cardiff Blues 4.50
2 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Apr 27 Cheetahs 14.10
3 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 27 Scarlets -8.70
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 27 Glasgow Warriors -5.50
5 Munster vs. Connacht Apr 27 Munster 11.70
6 Ulster vs. Leinster Apr 27 Leinster -3.50
7 Zebre vs. Treviso Apr 27 Treviso -9.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.20 8.72 1.50
Storm 7.82 6.03 1.80
Rabbitohs 4.59 3.89 0.70
Raiders 3.84 1.81 2.00
Sharks 2.86 3.90 -1.00
Dragons 1.21 0.06 1.20
Broncos 0.11 2.63 -2.50
Warriors -1.58 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -2.67 -5.61 2.90
Wests Tigers -2.78 -5.57 2.80
Panthers -2.92 0.93 -3.80
Cowboys -3.07 0.15 -3.20
Eels -3.11 -6.17 3.10
Bulldogs -4.43 -0.61 -3.80
Titans -4.79 -3.36 -1.40
Knights -7.27 -8.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 16 – 22 7.80 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 12 – 18 -8.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 28 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 18 – 26 -0.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 16 – 30 -2.80 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 40 – 4 4.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 19 – 0 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 Sharks 8.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 Rabbitohs -6.00
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 Storm 0.60
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 Warriors 6.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 Dragons 6.90
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 Titans 5.50
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 Raiders 6.70
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 Eels 2.70

 

April 15, 2019

Graphic of the week

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From 1News, via Richard Hills on Twitter, a graphic accompanying their latest opinion poll results.

 

If the picture of Parliament isn’t supposed to have some quantitative relationship to the opinion figures, it shouldn’t be in party colours.

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April 9, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.13 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.86 9.43 -1.60
Chiefs 4.80 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 2.98 4.01 -1.00
Sharks 2.90 0.45 2.50
Lions 2.37 8.28 -5.90
Waratahs 0.81 2.00 -1.20
Jaguares -1.09 -0.26 -0.80
Stormers -1.09 -0.39 -0.70
Bulls -1.20 -3.79 2.60
Brumbies -1.26 0.00 -1.30
Blues -1.76 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -2.61 -7.26 4.60
Reds -5.73 -8.19 2.50
Sunwolves -13.11 -16.08 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 28 – 31 -1.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 05 24 – 12 -2.40 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 05 5 – 42 8.40 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Apr 06 36 – 14 22.40 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 06 32 – 29 1.20 TRUE
6 Rebels vs. Sunwolves Apr 06 42 – 15 12.80 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 06 20 – 22 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 12 Crusaders 17.60
2 Rebels vs. Stormers Apr 12 Rebels 2.50
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 13 Chiefs 10.10
4 Brumbies vs. Lions Apr 13 Brumbies 0.40
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Apr 13 Sharks 8.00
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 13 Bulls 8.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.56 11.13 0.40
Saracens 9.73 11.19 -1.50
Gloucester Rugby 5.23 1.23 4.00
Northampton Saints 3.62 3.42 0.20
Wasps 2.51 8.30 -5.80
Harlequins 2.35 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 2.11 -0.81 2.90
Bath Rugby 2.05 3.11 -1.10
Leicester Tigers -0.34 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -2.31 -5.18 2.90
Newcastle Falcons -2.33 -3.51 1.20
Bristol -2.59 -5.60 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Bristol Apr 06 26 – 19 10.80 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 06 20 – 52 -4.20 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 06 31 – 40 5.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 06 28 – 17 4.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 06 26 – 12 18.30 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 06 28 – 16 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 Saracens -6.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 Exeter Chiefs 14.60
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 Gloucester Rugby 8.70
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 Harlequins 4.20
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 Newcastle Falcons 3.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Worcester Warriors 1.10

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.53 9.80 0.70
Munster 10.10 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 9.40 8.55 0.90
Connacht 3.11 0.01 3.10
Scarlets 2.36 6.39 -4.00
Edinburgh 1.13 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.86 0.24 0.60
Ulster 0.77 2.07 -1.30
Ospreys -0.15 -0.86 0.70
Treviso -0.46 -5.19 4.70
Cheetahs -2.81 -0.83 -2.00
Dragons -9.47 -8.59 -0.90
Southern Kings -10.79 -7.91 -2.90
Zebre -14.04 -10.57 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Ospreys Apr 06 14 – 31 3.40 FALSE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Apr 06 30 – 7 12.20 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Treviso Apr 06 27 – 27 16.80 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 06 45 – 21 12.80 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Apr 06 12 – 20 6.90 FALSE
6 Southern Kings vs. Dragons Apr 06 18 – 18 3.80 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Connacht Apr 06 5 – 6 -13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 Cheetahs 11.20
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 Connacht 6.70
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 Edinburgh 4.90
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 Leinster 5.60
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 Scarlets 20.90
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 Ospreys -6.10
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 Munster -6.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.41 8.72 0.70
Storm 7.98 6.03 1.90
Rabbitohs 5.13 3.89 1.20
Sharks 3.65 3.90 -0.30
Raiders 3.10 1.81 1.30
Broncos 1.08 2.63 -1.50
Dragons -1.02 0.06 -1.10
Warriors -2.12 -0.27 -1.80
Bulldogs -2.20 -0.61 -1.60
Eels -2.37 -6.17 3.80
Panthers -2.53 0.93 -3.50
Sea Eagles -3.19 -5.61 2.40
Cowboys -3.23 0.15 -3.40
Wests Tigers -3.74 -5.57 1.80
Titans -5.19 -3.36 -1.80
Knights -6.75 -8.51 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Apr 04 36 – 4 8.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 05 26 – 10 6.20 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 9 – 8 4.70 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 13 – 12 -6.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 06 12 – 30 -0.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 24 – 12 -5.50 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 18 – 16 15.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 07 12 – 13 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 Broncos 7.80
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 Titans 0.30
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 Storm -8.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 Rabbitohs 11.80
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 Sea Eagles -0.60
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 Roosters -2.80
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 Dragons 4.20
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 Raiders 8.50

 

April 6, 2019

Contains language

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I bet you they won’t play this song on the radio
I bet you they won’t play this new (bleep) song
It’s not that it’s (buzzer) or (horn) controversial
Just that the (bell)-ing words are awfully strong

— Monty Python, I Bet You They Won’t Play This Song on the Radio

Last year, I missed mentioning one of the minor jewels of the NZ regulatory landscape: the report ‘Language That May Offend in Broadcasting’ from the Broadcasting Standards Authority.

There’s pretty wide agreement around the world that some words should be avoided in radio and TV, and that what language is appropriate would vary according to the setting.  A gritty crime drama would be allowed more license that the main news bulletin, and someone using “Jesus” to refer to the Christian messiah would be different from someone using the word just as an expletive. There’s often reference to “community standards”.  In a lot of places, though, “community standards” are just pulled out of the air or handed down in precedent.

The Broadcasting Standards Authority does a survey of New Zealand every few years, where they actually ask a representative sample of the population how they feel about various words in various contexts (and asks them to suggest other offensive words that weren’t listed).

This time, the BSA added some words or phrases from Samoan and Te Reo Māori. They also added a few English words that are pejorative references to particular groups — in contrast to religious references and content-free profanity, this sort of word has remained unacceptable or perhaps become more unacceptable.

April 5, 2019

Twitter patterns

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There’s a new tool for graphing the Twitter output of people (or bots). It shows number of tweets per hour, and either the type of tweet (single new, threaded new, retweet ,reply, quote) or the app used to do post it.  It also shows repeated tweet text

Here’s my Auckland bus Twitter bot. It only does standalone tweets, four per hour, and it broke down for a few days. There’s the standard evening tweet repeated every day and the “can’t find the internet” tweet a few times.

Here are some NZ media people, where you can see the impact of the Christchurch terrorist attacks, roughly in the middle of the time period (click to enlarge)

Matt Nippert

Kirsty Johnson

Sean Plunket

Keith Ng

and, for fairness, me

You can see I was overseas last week. My tweeting went down a bit after Friday 15th.

Briefly

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  • Newshub headline: Massive earthquake, tsunami in New Zealand inevitable in our lifetime – experts.  In the story “We know a large earthquake and tsunami is something we will face in our lifetime, or that of our children and grandchildren.”
  • From Stuff. Understatement watch: “Census general manager Kathy Connolly said 60 court cases were being lodged in relation to people not completing the census. That was not everyone who failed to fill out the census”
  • The New York Times has an analysis of online links between white extremist terrorists.
  • NZ statistician Peter Ellis has moved to Melbourne and is now predicting AFL results
  • CNBC story about artificial intelligence in the criminal justice system.
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