Super Rugby Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 18.04 | 17.67 | 0.40 |
| Hurricanes | 8.46 | 9.43 | -1.00 |
| Highlanders | 5.20 | 4.01 | 1.20 |
| Chiefs | 2.41 | 8.56 | -6.10 |
| Lions | 2.08 | 8.28 | -6.20 |
| Jaguares | 1.39 | -0.26 | 1.70 |
| Sharks | 0.12 | 0.45 | -0.30 |
| Brumbies | -0.18 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Waratahs | -0.29 | 2.00 | -2.30 |
| Stormers | -0.50 | -0.39 | -0.10 |
| Bulls | -0.63 | -3.79 | 3.20 |
| Blues | -1.68 | -3.42 | 1.70 |
| Rebels | -3.47 | -7.26 | 3.80 |
| Reds | -5.07 | -8.19 | 3.10 |
| Sunwolves | -14.90 | -16.08 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 71 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Lions | Apr 26 | 36 – 10 | 19.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sunwolves vs. Highlanders | Apr 27 | 0 – 52 | -11.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Chiefs | Apr 27 | 47 – 19 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | 15 – 23 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Apr 27 | 24 – 23 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Jaguares vs. Brumbies | Apr 27 | 20 – 15 | 5.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Sharks | May 03 | Crusaders | 21.90 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Sunwolves | May 03 | Reds | 13.80 |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Rebels | May 04 | Hurricanes | 15.90 |
| 4 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | May 04 | Highlanders | 6.30 |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Blues | May 04 | Brumbies | 5.50 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Waratahs | May 04 | Bulls | 3.70 |
| 7 | Jaguares vs. Stormers | May 04 | Jaguares | 5.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »