Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 10.07 | 11.13 | -1.10 |
| Saracens | 10.01 | 11.19 | -1.20 |
| Northampton Saints | 4.70 | 3.42 | 1.30 |
| Gloucester Rugby | 4.39 | 1.23 | 3.20 |
| Wasps | 2.67 | 8.30 | -5.60 |
| Bath Rugby | 2.59 | 3.11 | -0.50 |
| Harlequins | 2.47 | 2.05 | 0.40 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.12 | -0.81 | 1.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | -0.43 | 6.26 | -6.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -1.02 | -5.18 | 4.20 |
| Bristol | -1.60 | -5.60 | 4.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.38 | -3.51 | 0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins | Apr 27 | 17 – 15 | 14.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Apr 27 | 20 – 23 | 7.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 27 | 17 – 31 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby | Apr 27 | 6 – 3 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wasps vs. Saracens | Apr 27 | 14 – 31 | -0.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby | Apr 27 | 27 – 20 | -0.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath Rugby vs. Wasps | May 04 | Bath Rugby | 5.40 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | May 04 | Bristol | 2.80 |
| 3 | Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 04 | Gloucester Rugby | 13.30 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | May 04 | Harlequins | 8.40 |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | May 04 | Northampton Saints | 11.20 |
| 6 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 04 | Saracens | 5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »