April 30, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.14 8.72 1.40
Storm 6.75 6.03 0.70
Rabbitohs 4.71 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.16 1.81 1.40
Broncos 1.86 2.63 -0.80
Dragons 1.04 0.06 1.00
Sharks 0.97 3.90 -2.90
Eels -1.51 -6.17 4.70
Warriors -1.53 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -1.84 -5.61 3.80
Panthers -2.57 0.93 -3.50
Cowboys -2.96 0.15 -3.10
Bulldogs -3.77 -0.61 -3.20
Titans -4.56 -3.36 -1.20
Wests Tigers -4.67 -5.57 0.90
Knights -7.21 -8.51 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 20 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 13 – 12 14.70 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 24 – 12 0.60 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 18 – 22 -4.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 30 – 14 0.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 24 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 28 – 14 -5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 Rabbitohs 5.80
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 Cowboys 4.60
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 Storm -2.80
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 Raiders 8.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 Sea Eagles 4.90
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 Roosters 17.80
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 Warriors 10.20
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 Eels 0.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »