April 16, 2019

NRL Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.20 8.72 1.50
Storm 7.82 6.03 1.80
Rabbitohs 4.59 3.89 0.70
Raiders 3.84 1.81 2.00
Sharks 2.86 3.90 -1.00
Dragons 1.21 0.06 1.20
Broncos 0.11 2.63 -2.50
Warriors -1.58 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -2.67 -5.61 2.90
Wests Tigers -2.78 -5.57 2.80
Panthers -2.92 0.93 -3.80
Cowboys -3.07 0.15 -3.20
Eels -3.11 -6.17 3.10
Bulldogs -4.43 -0.61 -3.80
Titans -4.79 -3.36 -1.40
Knights -7.27 -8.51 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 16 – 22 7.80 FALSE
2 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 12 30 – 24 0.30 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Apr 12 12 – 18 -8.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 13 28 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 18 – 26 -0.60 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 13 16 – 30 -2.80 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 14 40 – 4 4.20 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 14 19 – 0 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 Sharks 8.80
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 Rabbitohs -6.00
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 Storm 0.60
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 Warriors 6.00
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 Dragons 6.90
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 Titans 5.50
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 Raiders 6.70
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 Eels 2.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »