April 9, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 11.56 11.13 0.40
Saracens 9.73 11.19 -1.50
Gloucester Rugby 5.23 1.23 4.00
Northampton Saints 3.62 3.42 0.20
Wasps 2.51 8.30 -5.80
Harlequins 2.35 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 2.11 -0.81 2.90
Bath Rugby 2.05 3.11 -1.10
Leicester Tigers -0.34 6.26 -6.60
Worcester Warriors -2.31 -5.18 2.90
Newcastle Falcons -2.33 -3.51 1.20
Bristol -2.59 -5.60 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Bristol Apr 06 26 – 19 10.80 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 06 20 – 52 -4.20 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 06 31 – 40 5.20 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 06 28 – 17 4.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 06 26 – 12 18.30 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 06 28 – 16 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 Saracens -6.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 Exeter Chiefs 14.60
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 Gloucester Rugby 8.70
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 Harlequins 4.20
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 Newcastle Falcons 3.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 Worcester Warriors 1.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »