April 9, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.53 9.80 0.70
Munster 10.10 8.08 2.00
Glasgow Warriors 9.40 8.55 0.90
Connacht 3.11 0.01 3.10
Scarlets 2.36 6.39 -4.00
Edinburgh 1.13 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.86 0.24 0.60
Ulster 0.77 2.07 -1.30
Ospreys -0.15 -0.86 0.70
Treviso -0.46 -5.19 4.70
Cheetahs -2.81 -0.83 -2.00
Dragons -9.47 -8.59 -0.90
Southern Kings -10.79 -7.91 -2.90
Zebre -14.04 -10.57 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 103 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Ospreys Apr 06 14 – 31 3.40 FALSE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Apr 06 30 – 7 12.20 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Treviso Apr 06 27 – 27 16.80 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 06 45 – 21 12.80 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Apr 06 12 – 20 6.90 FALSE
6 Southern Kings vs. Dragons Apr 06 18 – 18 3.80 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Connacht Apr 06 5 – 6 -13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Dragons Apr 13 Cheetahs 11.20
2 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Apr 13 Connacht 6.70
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Apr 13 Edinburgh 4.90
4 Leinster vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 13 Leinster 5.60
5 Scarlets vs. Zebre Apr 13 Scarlets 20.90
6 Southern Kings vs. Ospreys Apr 13 Ospreys -6.10
7 Treviso vs. Munster Apr 13 Munster -6.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »