April 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.15 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.75 9.43 -1.70
Lions 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Chiefs 4.80 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 3.09 4.01 -0.90
Waratahs 0.91 2.00 -1.10
Sharks 0.17 0.45 -0.30
Stormers -0.22 -0.39 0.20
Bulls -0.80 -3.79 3.00
Brumbies -1.29 0.00 -1.30
Jaguares -1.50 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.46 -7.26 3.80
Reds -6.59 -8.19 1.60
Sunwolves -12.25 -16.08 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 29 8 – 32 -3.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 29 29 – 31 19.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Stormers Mar 30 24 – 9 0.60 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 30 13 – 32 3.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Mar 30 16 – 19 5.50 FALSE
6 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 30 27 – 30 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Hurricanes -1.20
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 05 Stormers -2.40
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 05 Lions 8.40
4 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Apr 06 Crusaders 22.40
5 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Blues 1.20
6 Rebels vs. Sunwolves Apr 06 Rebels 12.80
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 06 Bulls 4.70

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »