Posts from April 2019 (22)

April 30, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.04 17.67 0.40
Hurricanes 8.46 9.43 -1.00
Highlanders 5.20 4.01 1.20
Chiefs 2.41 8.56 -6.10
Lions 2.08 8.28 -6.20
Jaguares 1.39 -0.26 1.70
Sharks 0.12 0.45 -0.30
Brumbies -0.18 0.00 -0.20
Waratahs -0.29 2.00 -2.30
Stormers -0.50 -0.39 -0.10
Bulls -0.63 -3.79 3.20
Blues -1.68 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -3.47 -7.26 3.80
Reds -5.07 -8.19 3.10
Sunwolves -14.90 -16.08 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Apr 26 36 – 10 19.10 TRUE
2 Sunwolves vs. Highlanders Apr 27 0 – 52 -11.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 27 47 – 19 7.00 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks Apr 27 15 – 23 5.20 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 27 24 – 23 4.00 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Apr 27 20 – 15 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Sharks May 03 Crusaders 21.90
2 Reds vs. Sunwolves May 03 Reds 13.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels May 04 Hurricanes 15.90
4 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 04 Highlanders 6.30
5 Brumbies vs. Blues May 04 Brumbies 5.50
6 Bulls vs. Waratahs May 04 Bulls 3.70
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers May 04 Jaguares 5.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.07 11.13 -1.10
Saracens 10.01 11.19 -1.20
Northampton Saints 4.70 3.42 1.30
Gloucester Rugby 4.39 1.23 3.20
Wasps 2.67 8.30 -5.60
Bath Rugby 2.59 3.11 -0.50
Harlequins 2.47 2.05 0.40
Sale Sharks 1.12 -0.81 1.90
Leicester Tigers -0.43 6.26 -6.70
Worcester Warriors -1.02 -5.18 4.20
Bristol -1.60 -5.60 4.00
Newcastle Falcons -3.38 -3.51 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Apr 27 17 – 15 14.30 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 27 20 – 23 7.70 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 27 17 – 31 -1.40 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby Apr 27 6 – 3 4.30 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Saracens Apr 27 14 – 31 -0.40 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 27 27 – 20 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath Rugby vs. Wasps May 04 Bath Rugby 5.40
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks May 04 Bristol 2.80
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Newcastle Falcons May 04 Gloucester Rugby 13.30
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers May 04 Harlequins 8.40
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors May 04 Northampton Saints 11.20
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs May 04 Saracens 5.40

 

Pro14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 10.44 8.08 2.40
Leinster 9.40 9.80 -0.40
Glasgow Warriors 9.16 8.55 0.60
Connacht 3.03 0.01 3.00
Scarlets 2.67 6.39 -3.70
Ulster 2.08 2.07 0.00
Ospreys 1.47 -0.86 2.30
Edinburgh 1.20 -0.64 1.80
Cardiff Blues 0.25 0.24 0.00
Treviso -0.34 -5.19 4.90
Cheetahs -1.42 -0.83 -0.60
Dragons -9.57 -8.59 -1.00
Southern Kings -12.62 -7.91 -4.70
Zebre -15.18 -10.57 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Apr 27 23 – 26 4.50 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Southern Kings Apr 27 61 – 25 14.10 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 27 34 – 32 -8.70 FALSE
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Apr 27 34 – 10 -5.50 FALSE
5 Munster vs. Connacht Apr 27 27 – 14 11.70 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Leinster Apr 27 14 – 13 -3.50 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Treviso Apr 27 11 – 25 -9.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Treviso May 05 Munster 15.30
2 Ulster vs. Connacht May 05 Ulster 3.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.14 8.72 1.40
Storm 6.75 6.03 0.70
Rabbitohs 4.71 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.16 1.81 1.40
Broncos 1.86 2.63 -0.80
Dragons 1.04 0.06 1.00
Sharks 0.97 3.90 -2.90
Eels -1.51 -6.17 4.70
Warriors -1.53 -0.27 -1.30
Sea Eagles -1.84 -5.61 3.80
Panthers -2.57 0.93 -3.50
Cowboys -2.96 0.15 -3.10
Bulldogs -3.77 -0.61 -3.20
Titans -4.56 -3.36 -1.20
Wests Tigers -4.67 -5.57 0.90
Knights -7.21 -8.51 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 20 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 13 – 12 14.70 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 24 – 12 0.60 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 18 – 22 -4.30 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 30 – 14 0.80 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 24 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 28 – 14 -5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos May 02 Rabbitohs 5.80
2 Cowboys vs. Titans May 03 Cowboys 4.60
3 Sharks vs. Storm May 03 Storm -2.80
4 Raiders vs. Panthers May 04 Raiders 8.70
5 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs May 04 Sea Eagles 4.90
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 04 Roosters 17.80
7 Warriors vs. Knights May 05 Warriors 10.20
8 Eels vs. Dragons May 05 Eels 0.50

 

April 22, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.63 17.67 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.20 9.43 -2.20
Chiefs 3.67 8.56 -4.90
Highlanders 2.76 4.01 -1.20
Lions 2.50 8.28 -5.80
Jaguares 1.42 -0.26 1.70
Waratahs 0.50 2.00 -1.50
Brumbies -0.22 0.00 -0.20
Stormers -0.32 -0.39 0.10
Sharks -0.67 0.45 -1.10
Bulls -0.81 -3.79 3.00
Blues -1.68 -3.42 1.70
Rebels -3.47 -7.26 3.80
Reds -5.07 -8.19 3.10
Sunwolves -12.45 -16.08 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Lions Apr 19 17 – 23 6.70 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Reds Apr 19 14 – 21 10.50 FALSE
3 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 23 – 29 -17.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 24 – 12 7.40 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 20 23 – 20 8.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Apr 20 17 – 19 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Lions Apr 26 Crusaders 19.10
2 Sunwolves vs. Highlanders Apr 27 Highlanders -11.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 27 Hurricanes 7.00
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks Apr 27 Waratahs 5.20
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 27 Stormers 4.00
6 Jaguares vs. Brumbies Apr 27 Jaguares 5.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.31 8.72 1.60
Storm 7.71 6.03 1.70
Rabbitohs 4.73 3.89 0.80
Raiders 3.65 1.81 1.80
Sharks 2.53 3.90 -1.40
Dragons 0.87 0.06 0.80
Broncos 0.30 2.63 -2.30
Eels -0.15 -6.17 6.00
Cowboys -2.16 0.15 -2.30
Sea Eagles -2.33 -5.61 3.30
Warriors -2.49 -0.27 -2.20
Panthers -2.59 0.93 -3.50
Titans -3.50 -3.36 -0.10
Bulldogs -4.57 -0.61 -4.00
Wests Tigers -5.74 -5.57 -0.20
Knights -8.57 -8.51 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Panthers Apr 18 24 – 20 8.80 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 19 6 – 14 -6.00 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 19 20 – 21 0.60 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 20 10 – 17 6.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 12 – 10 6.90 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Knights Apr 21 38 – 14 5.50 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Broncos Apr 21 26 – 22 6.70 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 22 51 – 6 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 12.40
2 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 14.70
3 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 26 Bulldogs 0.60
4 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 26 Rabbitohs -4.30
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Apr 27 Wests Tigers 0.80
6 Broncos vs. Sharks Apr 27 Broncos 0.80
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 28 Raiders -3.00
8 Knights vs. Eels Apr 28 Eels -5.40

 

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April 19, 2019

In mice

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A few years ago I briefly ran a Twitter account that retweeted science news stories with, as it might be, “In mice”, “In rats”, “In cell cultures”.

Now someone else has a new (and hopefully longer-lasting) effort: @justsaysinmice. For example

and

The point isn’t that there’s something wrong with mouse research. These types of basic science can be enormously valuable. The problem is the headlines (and ledes and first few paragraphs and…) which make much stronger claims about health than the research supports.

Someone seeing “Reused cooking oil ups risk of metastases in breast cancer patients” should be able to assume that that’s what the study found — or even without the causal language, that the study involved metastases in breast cancer patients, rather than  tumours injected into mice.

Scientists should be objecting when their work is mischaracterised that way, but they mostly don’t. Some of them even encourage it.  Readers should also object, but again, they don’t and many of them encourage it.

Briefly

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April 16, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.63 17.67 -0.00
Hurricanes 7.86 9.43 -1.60
Chiefs 4.44 8.56 -4.10
Highlanders 2.48 4.01 -1.50
Lions 1.73 8.28 -6.60
Jaguares 1.42 -0.26 1.70
Waratahs 0.81 2.00 -1.20
Sharks 0.38 0.45 -0.10
Stormers 0.08 -0.39 0.50
Brumbies -0.62 0.00 -0.60
Bulls -0.81 -3.79 3.00
Blues -1.40 -3.42 2.00
Rebels -3.78 -7.26 3.50
Reds -6.11 -8.19 2.10
Sunwolves -13.11 -16.08 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 12 43 – 17 17.60 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Stormers Apr 12 24 – 41 2.50 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 13 33 – 29 10.10 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Lions Apr 13 31 – 20 0.40 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Jaguares Apr 13 17 – 51 8.00 FALSE
6 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 13 32 – 17 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Lions Apr 19 Chiefs 6.70
2 Sharks vs. Reds Apr 19 Sharks 10.50
3 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Apr 20 Hurricanes -17.00
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 20 Highlanders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 20 Waratahs 8.10
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Stormers 4.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.66 11.13 -0.50
Saracens 9.27 11.19 -1.90
Gloucester Rugby 4.81 1.23 3.60
Northampton Saints 4.09 3.42 0.70
Wasps 3.41 8.30 -4.90
Bath Rugby 2.47 3.11 -0.60
Harlequins 1.88 2.05 -0.20
Sale Sharks 1.23 -0.81 2.00
Leicester Tigers 0.10 6.26 -6.20
Worcester Warriors -1.43 -5.18 3.70
Bristol -2.13 -5.60 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -2.78 -3.51 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Apr 13 23 – 21 -6.80 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Apr 13 19 – 26 14.60 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Bath Rugby Apr 13 27 – 23 8.70 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 13 19 – 20 4.20 FALSE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 13 22 – 27 3.50 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Apr 13 39 – 17 1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Apr 27 Exeter Chiefs 14.30
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 7.70
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 27 Northampton Saints -1.40
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Rugby Apr 27 Sale Sharks 4.30
5 Wasps vs. Saracens Apr 27 Saracens -0.40
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Rugby Apr 27 Gloucester Rugby -0.70

 

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